Harris Wins, Biden Loses in First Post-Debate Polls

The first post-debate polls on the Democratic presidential candidates are out.

Senator Kamala Harris saw the largest jump in support – mostly siphoned from Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.  She jumped from 7.9% before the two evenings of debate, to 6.3% after the first night, then up to 16.6% after both nights.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Bernie Sanders, and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro also saw increases in support.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren Saw her stock rise from 12.6% before the first debate to 18% after, only to fall back down to 14.4% following the second debate.  As a result, Warren’s differential stands at a fairly paltry +1.8%.

Interestingly, she pulled support from Sanders, Harris, and Mayor Pete Buttigieg after participating in Wednesday night’s debate, but her loss the next night went almost entirely to Harris.

Senator Bernie Sanders garnered support following both debates.  After the first debate (in which he did not participate), Sanders’ support went from 14.4% to 16.4%.  Following his performance in the second debate, he gained almost another percentage point, rising to 17.3#, for a total differential of +2.9%.

According to an infographic available at FiveThirtyEight, Sanders was the only candidate to see his stock increase both nights.

Julian Castro, who began with 0.7% support before jumping to 2.1% after his performance in the first debate, dropped down to 1.7% after the second debate (in which he did not participate).  This may seem like nothing, but it’s a 142% increase in support for a candidate with little name ID.

The biggest loser this week (at least by the numbers) was former Vice President Joe Biden, who led with 41.5% of the vote prior to the first debate.  His support fell to 35.4% after the first night (in which he did not participate) and then to 31.5% after night two.

Other losers include Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Cory Booker, and former Representative Beto O’Rourke.

Buttigieg, who began with 6.7% support, ended the debates with just 4.8%.  His supporters fled to Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

Booker lost 0.2% support, moving from 3% to 2.8% after all was said and done.  The senator’s support was primarily siphoned by three candidates – Sanders, Harris, and Biden.

O’Rourke, who came into the debates with 3.6% support, left with just 2.2%.  His losses came mostly at the hands of Joe Biden.

Ouch – how much would it hurt to lose support to Biden, who himself fell 10% over the two nights?

Perhaps most interesting to me?  Tulsi Gabbard netted no change in support, despite being the most Googled candidate following her performance Wednesday night.  She both started and ended at 0.7%, though she briefly fell to 0.6% after the first debate.

Of course, none of this means too much yet, as this is just one of twelve debates scheduled into next year.  Hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a long 16 months.