Forecasters Are Already Predicting Trouble For President Trump In 2020

It’s a little early for this, don’t you think?

Nate Silver analyzed the results of the 2018 midterms and arrived to some conclusions. He believes the path for a Republican victory in 2020 will be difficult.

Will the Electoral College help Trump again in 2020? Actually, based on the results from the midterms, that's not so clear. https://t.co/iDz0iMHUe5

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018

Democrats did very well in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are basically the tipping-point states right now. I posted this map last night, but here's who won each state in the popular vote for the House in each state. Dark blue / dark red = won by at least 5 points. pic.twitter.com/Q7PLB6d4Ob

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018

Of course, Tuesday was a very blue night. But if you shift every state toward Republicans by 6 points, which roughly reflects what you'd get in a neutral political environment, here's what the map looks like. This looks like a pretty fair fight for the Electoral College. pic.twitter.com/HKe1z66C22

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018

Basically, a Democrat hoping to win the WH can undertake one of 2 strategies:
1) Northern Path—Flip WI, MI & PA back to blue. Hold MN.
2) Sunbelt Strategy—Lose all the above states, but win FL and any of NC, AZ, TX(!), GA.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018

The Sunbelt Strategy may be tempting to Dems, especially if Texas is now more competitive. But the Northern Path—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania—sure looks a lot easier. What you really don't want it to get stuck in between the two, which is sort of what happened to Clinton.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018

You can read his full analysis here.

Here’s the thing: These are the same people who said Trump didn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of winning in 2016. They were still in disbelief the night it happened. Heck, they’re still in disbelief now.

As I’ve stated before, I think a Democratic controlled House will help Republicans in 2020. They’re going to tick everyone off with pointless investigations and impeachment proceedings (for Trump AND Kavanaugh). They’ll remind the American people why they shouldn’t ever be in charge of anything. I really believe that will happen.

Silver’s clearly not taking any of that into consideration.

h/t Twitchy