Kamala Harris VP Pick: Clear Favorite Emerges in Betting Markets
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August 2, 2024
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August 5, 2024Democrat Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has emerged as the frontrunner in betting markets, with an 80% chance of becoming Kamala Harris’ pick for vice president.
BetUS is predicting Shapiro at 80% while PredictIT sits at 72% and Polymarket is 69% in Shapiro’s favor.
Harris is anticipated to announce her vice presidential running mate very soon.
Only a week ago, the top choice appeared to be Arizona Governor Mark Kelly.
Despite Shapiro’s strong position, there remains the possibility of an unexpected candidate entering the race.
“Josh Shapiro is now the clear and undisputed favorite,” BetUS director of public relations Tim Williams said.
“I’d say Shapiro is about as close to a sure thing as we ever see in betting markets.”
“Assuming Shapiro clenches the VP nomination, I would say the moral of the story is to trust the betting public first, and the odds-makers second,” Williams said. “People really do put their money where their mouth is, so-to-speak.”
Arizona Governor Mark Kelly’s odds of becoming Vice President have significantly decreased, placing him in fourth with only 9% on PredictIt and 6% on PolyMarket.
Meanwhile, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear stands at 23% on BetUS, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has 17% and 13% odds on PredictIt and PolyMarket, respectively.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s chances have increased in light of Harris’s upcoming tour of battleground states, starting with a rally in Pennsylvania.
The Harris campaign has not confirmed any decision regarding the VP selection, leaving traders to speculate until the official announcement.
“Gov. Josh Shapiro is definitely having a good week in the PredictIt markets,” PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer said.
“But Harris’ campaign is telling us not to read too much into the rally location early next week, so you’ll want to continue to keep a close eye on this one as there could be significant trading opportunities for other candidates over the weekend.”
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